Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Three Basic Facts about Subjective Technical Analysis
1) No single TA pattern, method, or algorithm (or combination of such) has ever been demonstrated, using rigorous statistical methodology stripped of biases, to work any better than a random signal in elucidating market or security direction. And this includes the famous head-and-shoulders pattern. In other words, subjective technical analysis is largely an optical illusion, akin to alchemy or palm-reading.
2) All of the well-known TA patterns show up consistently in charts made by a random chart generator.
3) In a frequently repeated experiment with consistent results, experienced chartists and TA practitioners are routinely unable to distinguish the charts of real securities from those made by a random chart generator.
Happy trading!
Matt
2) All of the well-known TA patterns show up consistently in charts made by a random chart generator.
3) In a frequently repeated experiment with consistent results, experienced chartists and TA practitioners are routinely unable to distinguish the charts of real securities from those made by a random chart generator.
Happy trading!
Matt